March Madness is on its way, and conference tournaments are starting up all across the country.
Tonight, we see tournament action in the Big South, MVC, SoCon, OVC, and the West Coast Conference.
Which games should draw our attention? Let’s find out.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
This season series is 1-1. The road team won each matchup, and the games totaled 144 and 148 points, respectively.
The Buccaneers have a top-70 adjusted offense, via BartTorvik.combut both teams are outside the top 275 defensively.
Our model is liking The Citadel to cover the 5.5-point spread with a 57.9% probability, good for a two-unit wager suggestion. In the 25 most similar games to this one in our historical database, teams representing The Citadel are 14-11-0 against the spread.
Additionally, the under (151.5) is a two-star suggestion. I refer you back to the prior totals in this matchup of 144 and 148 points. numberFire’s model likes the under to hit at a 57.9% rate with an expected return of 10.4%.
My model anticipates a total of 146.4 points tonight, as well.
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs. Murray State Racers
The Redhawks demolished the Tennessee State Tigers by a score of 79-55 yesterday after the Tigers won their first-round matchup the day prior. That, then, puts the Redhawks on a back-to-back.
In the regular season, Murray State won both games against Southeast Missouri State first by 25 (a 106-81 win in late December) and then by 2 (a 70-68 win on February 26th).
The Redhawks are trending up a bit at the end of the season, yet they are still well behind the Racers. Murray State ranks 37th in our power rankings; Southeast Missouri State is 250th.
Ultimately, Murray State (-15.5) to cover is a two-unit suggestion, as is the under (151.5).
My model likes the total at 147.8, too.
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Brigham Young Cougars
BYU, 56th in our power rankings, hasn’t played since February 26th. Loyola Marymount ranks 186th.
That helps explain a -630 moneyline for the Cougars and the 11.5-point spread.
The algorithm here is not finding exorbitant value on the spread or moneyline but does like a one-star (a one-unit wager) for BYU to cover and win outright. In the 25 most comparable matchups to this one, teams representing the Cougars are 14-11-0 against the spread and 21-4 outright.
BYU is 2-0 in the season series with wins by 1 point (83-82 on February 10th on the road) and by 20 points (79-59 at home on February 24th).
The under (143.5) is actually the most advantageous play in this game, via our algorithm. It’s a two-star opportunity.